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introduction

Immigration and immigrant policy is about immigrants, their families and the rest of us. It is about the meaning of American nationality and the foundation of national unity. It is about uniting persons from all over the world in a common civic culture.

The process of becoming an American is most simply called

"Americanization," which must always be a two-way street. All Americans, not just immigrants, should understand the importance of our shared civic culture to our national community. This final report of the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform makes recommendations to further the goals of Americanization by setting out immigrant policies to help orient immigrants and their new communities, to improve educational programs that help immigrants and their children learn English and civics, and to reinforce the integrity of the naturalization process through which immigrants become

U.S. citizens.

This report also makes recommendations regarding immigration policy. It reiterates and updates the conclusions we reached in three interim reportson unlawful migration, legal immigration, and refugee and asylum policyand makes additional recommendations for reforming immigration policies. Further, in this report, the Commission recommends ways to improve the structure and management of the federal agencies responsible for achieving the goals of immigration

policy. It is our hope that this final report Becoming An American: Immigration and Immigrant Policy, along with our three interim

reports, constitutes a full response to the work assigned the Commission by Congress: to assess the national interest in immigration and report how it can best be achieved.

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MANDATE AND METHODS

Public Law 101-649, the Immigration Act of 1990 [IMMACT], established this Commission to review and evaluate the impact of immigration policy. More specifically, the Commission must report on immigration's impact on: the need for labor and skills; employment and other aspects of the economy; social, demographic, and

environmental conditions; and the foreign policy and national security interests of the United States. The Commission engaged in a wide variety of fact-finding activities to fulfill this mandate. Site visits were conducted throughout the United States. Commission members visited immigrant and refugee communities in California, Texas, Florida, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, Arizona, Washington, Kansas, Virginia, Washington, DC, Puerto Rico and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Some Commission and staff members also visited such major source countries as Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Haiti, and the Philippines. To increase our understanding of international refugee policy issues, members and staff of the Commission visited Bosnia, Croatia, Germany, and Kenya, and consulted with Geneva-based officials from the U.N. High Commission for Refugees and the International Organization for

Migration. We held more than forty public hearings, consultations with government and private sector officials, and expert roundtable

discussions.

TODAY'S IMMIGRANTS

The effects of immigration are numerous, complex, and varied.

Immigrants contribute in many ways to the United States: to its

vibrant and diverse communities; to its lively and participatory

democracy; to its vital intellectual and cultural life; to its renowned job-creating entrepreneurship and marketplaces; and to its family values and hard-work ethic. However, there are costs as well as

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Immigrant Admissions by Major Category: FYs 1992-1996

Category of Admission 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

TOTAL 810,635 880,014 798,394 716,194 909,959

SUBJECT TO THE NUMERICAL CAP 655,541 719,701 662,029 593,234 771,604

FAMILY-BASED IMMIGRANTS 502,995 539,209 497,682 460,653 595,540

Immediate Relatives of U.S. citizens 235,484 255,059 249,764 220,360 350,192

Spouses and children 170,720 192,631 193,394 171,978 283,592

Parents 64,764 62,428 56,370 48,382 66,600

Children born abroad to alien residents 2,116 2,030 1,883 1,894 1,658

Family-sponsored immigrants 213,123 226,776 211,961 238,122 293,751

Unmarried sons/daughters of U.S. citizens 12,486 12,819 13,181 15,182 20,885

Spouses and children of LPRs 90,486 98,604 88,673 110,960 145,990

Sons and daughters of LPRs 27,761 29,704 26,327 33,575 36,559

Married sons/daughters of U.S. citizens 22,195 23,385 22,191 20,876 25,420

Siblings of U.S. citizens 60,195 62,264 61,589 57,529 64,897

Legalization dependents 52,272 55,344 34,074 277 184

EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS 116,198 147,012 123,291 85,336 117,346

Priority workers 5,456 21,114 21,053 17,339 27,469

Professionals w/ adv. deg. or of advanced ability 58,401 29,468 14,432 10,475 18,436

Skilled, professionals, other workers, (CSPA) 47,568 87,689 76,956 50,245 62,674

Skilled, professionals, other workers 47,568 60,774 55,659 46,032 62,273

Chinese Student Protection Act (CSPA) X 26,915 21,297 4,213 401

Special immigrants 4,063 8,158 10,406 6,737 7,831

Investors 59 583 444 540 936

Professionals or highly skilled (Old 3rd) 340 X X X X

Needed skilled or unskilled workers (Old 6th) 311 X X X X

DIVERSITY PROGRAMS 36,348 33,480 41,056 47,245 58,718

Diversity permanent X X X 40,301 58,174

Diversity transition 33,911 33,468 41,056 6,994 544 Nationals of adversely affected countries 1,557 10 X X X

Natives of underrepresented countries 880 2 X X X

NOT SUBJECT TO THE NUMERICAL CAP 155,094 160,313 136,365 122,960 138,323

Amerasians 17,253 11,116 2,822 939 954

Cuban/Haitian Entrants 99 62 47 42 29

Parolees, Soviet and Indochinese 13,661 15,772 8,253 3,120 2,283

Refugees and Asylees 117,037 127,343 121,434 114,632 128,367

Refugee adjustments 106,379 115,539 115,451 106,795 118,345

Asylee adjustments 10,658 11,804 5,983 7,837 10,022

Registered Nurses and their families 3,572 2,178 304 69 16

Registry, entered prior to 1/1/72 1,293 938 667 466 356

Other 2,179 2,904 2,838 3,692 6,318

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Note: X = Not Applicable. Excludes persons granted LPR status under the provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

Source: Immigration and Naturalization Service, Statistics Division.

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benefits from today's immigration. Those workers most at risk in our restructuring economylow-skilled workers in production and service jobsare those who directly compete with today's low-skilled immigrants. Further, immigration presents special challenges to certain states and local communities that disproportionately bear the fiscal and other costs of incorporating newcomers.

Characteristics of Immigrants

In FY 1996 (the last year for which data are available), more than 900,000 immigrants came to the United States from 206 nations, for a variety of reasons and with a diverse set of personal characteristics. Not surprisingly, the characteristics of immigrants from different sending countries vary, as do their effects on the U.S. There are also differences between immigrants admitted under different classes of admission. These differences generally reflect the statutory provisions that guide admissions. [See Appendix for description of IMMACT's more specific provisions and its effects.]

Places of Origin. Asia and North America (i.e., Mexico, Canada, the Caribbean, and Central America) remain the sending regions with the largest share of immigrants. Mexico remains the largest sending country and its share of total legal immigrants to the U.S. increased from an average of 12 percent in the 1980s to more than 13 percent in FY 1994 and up to 18 percent in FY 1996. The effects of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 [IRCA], which resulted in the legalization of about two million formerly illegal Mexican residents, explains this trend. Even though the special admission category for the spouses of legalized aliens' dependents has been

discontinued, Mexico benefits from the IMMACT's removal of per- country limits on the numerically limited spouse and children class of admission (FB-2A).

1996

Top Ten Countries of Origin of Legal Immigrants

Mexico 159,731

Philippines 55,778

India 44,781

Vietnam 42,006

Mainland China 41,662

Dominican Republic 39,516

Cuba 26,415

Ukraine 21,051

Russia 19,646

Jamaica 19,029

Source: INS FY 1996

Public Use Admissions Data.

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IMMACT established a transitional and a permanent "diversity" category for countries whose admission numbers were adversely affected by the Immigration Act of 1965. The transitional program was in effect from FY 1992 to 1994, but unused visas were carried over through FY 1996. The permanent program went into effect in FY 1995. European countries benefitted the most from the transitional program, which mandated that as many as 40 percent of the visas could go to nationals of Ireland. Actual Irish admissions reached only 35 percent, with Polish immigrants accounting for an even larger share (38 percent). Under the permanent diversity program, 42 percent of the immigrants came from European countries and 35 percent came from Africa. The effect on African admissions is particularly noteworthy as Africans account for less than 1 percent of immigrants in other admission categories.

Origins of Diversity Immigrants

versus All Other* Immigrants

PERCENT

*Other includes immigrants in family, employment, and humanitarian-based categories

of admission.

Source: INS Public Use Admissions Data.

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Intended U.S. destinations. Immigrants in FY 1996 continue to select just a few states as their destinations. About two-thirds intend to reside in California, New York, Texas, Florida, and New Jersey. One-quarter of admissions are to California alone with another one-seventh to New York. New York City retains its place as the pre-

eminent immigrant city with 15 percent of immigrants intending to go there. About 7 percent of immigrants intend to go to Los Angeles, and Miami and Chicago are in third place with about 4.5 percent each of the total. There has been little change in these leading destinations since IMMACT. However, some new destinations have emerged in recent years. For example, during the past decade,

such midwestern and southern states as Mississippi,

Nebraska, Kansas, Georgia and North Carolina saw more than a doubling of the number of immigrants intending to reside there. Although the numbers are significantly smaller than the more traditional destinations, absorbing more new immigrants can be a challenge for these newer destinations that often do not have the

immigration-related infrastructure of the traditional receiving

communities.

Age. Immigrants in FY 1996 remain young, with the largest proportion being in their later teens or twenties. A little more than one-fifth are children 15 years of age or younger, and another one-fifth are

45 years or older. More than one-half of family-based immigrants are younger than 30 years of age, reflecting the predominance of spouses and children. Because of beneficiaries, employment-based immigrants have just as many minor dependents age 15 years and younger as other groups, but more than two-fifths of these employment-based immigrants themselves are 30-44 years, the experienced and highly productive working ages. Diversity immigrants have a similar, yet somewhat younger, age distribution than other classes of admission. In contrast, and in large part due to those admitted as refugees from the former Soviet Union, humanitarian admissions tend to be somewhat older than other immigrants.

1996:

Top Ten

Intended States of Residence

of Legal Immigrants

California 199,221

New York 153,731

Texas 82,229

Florida 79,067

New Jersey 63,162

Illinois 42,154

Massachusetts 23,017

Virginia 21,329

Maryland 20,683

Washington 18,718

Source: INS FY 1996

Public Use Admissions Data.

Top Ten

Intended

Metro Areas

of Residence

of Legal Immigrants

New York 133,168

Los Angeles 64,285

Miami 41,527

Chicago 39,989

Washington DC 34,327

Houston 21,387

Boston 18,726

San Diego 18,226

San Francisco 18,171

Newark 17,939

Source: http:/www.ins.usdoj.gov/stats/annual/fy96/997.html

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Age Groups of 1996 Legal Immigrants (Principals and Derivative Beneficiaries)

group all family employment diversity humanitarian

15 yrs. & younger 22% 23% 20% 22% 20%

16 through 29 yrs. 31% 34% 23% 33% 27%

30 through 44 yrs. 27% 23% 44% 34% 24% 45 through 60 yrs. 15% 14% 12% 10% 21%

65 years & older 5% 5% 0% 1% 8%

Source: INS FY 1996 Public Use Admissions Data.

Gender. Females were 54 percent of admissions in FY 1996. There had been an essentially even balance of men and women during the decade of the 1980s. The increased share of females in the 1990s parallels the historical tendency toward more female immigrants throughout much of the post-World War II period. It also reflects the admission of the spouses of legalized aliens who were predominantly male. In FY 1996, family-based admissions were predominantly

female (57 percent) and employment-based admissions (including beneficiaries) were evenly balanced by gender. Diversity (45 percent female) and humanitarian (48 percent female) admissions, in contrast, had more male immigrants. That a slight majority of FY 1996 humanitarian admissions were male is somewhat surprising given that worldwide refugee populations are disproportionately female.

English ability. The Immigration and Naturalization Service [INS] admissions data do not include information on English language ability (or education, as discussed below). The following analysis draws instead on preliminary data from the New Immigrant Survey [NIS],¹ which studied a sample of immigrants admitted in FY 1996. The NIS is a pilot study designed to test the feasibility of a longitudinal immigrant survey. Although the data are not yet published,

¹ Jasso, G.; Massey, D.S.; Rosenzweig,M.R.; Smith, J.P. 1997. The New Immigrant Survey [NIS] Pilot Study: Preliminary Results. Paper presented at the Joint Meeting of the Public Health Conference on Records and Statistics and the Data Users Conference, Washington, DC. (July.)

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analysis indicates that it offers promise of providing certain information about immigrants that has not previously been available.

The NIS, using the same measure as the U.S. Census, reports on the English language proficiency of adult legal immigrants who are

18 years and older. The initial results show that employment-based immigrants report the greatest English ability70 percent of

employment-based admissions report speaking at least fairly well and less than 10 percent speak very little or no English (the remainder report an "average" speaking ability). About 37 percent of

family-based admissions report speaking English at least fairly well and an almost equal proportion report speaking little or no English. The diversity immigrants tend to report even less English ability, despite the requirement that they have at least a high school education. The humanitarian admissions trail the furthest behind in

reported English language ability. Only 16 percent report speaking English at least fairly well, while more than 50 percent report speaking little or no English.

English Language Proficiency among New Adult Immigrants (18 years and older): 1996

PERCENT

Source: Jasso, G.; et al. 1997. New Immigrant Survey Pilot Study.

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Education. The years of schooling completed by immigrants is

perhaps one of the most critical measures of skill level. The NIS provides our first indicators of years of education of adult legal

immigrants at the time of their admission. As found in studies of foreign-born residents, the immigrants surveyed by the NIS tend to cluster at the higher or lower ends of the educational spectrum and differ significantly in their educational attainment by class of admission. Fully 46 percent of employment-based admissions have

completed four years of college or a graduate degree. This figure

includes principals and beneficiaries, making it likely that well-

educated employment-based immigrants tend to have well-educated spouses. In contrast, just 17 percent of family-based immigrants

25 years and older have completed a college-level education while

42 percent have less than a high school education.

Educational Attainment

of Legal Immigrants

(25 years and older): 1996

PERCENT

Source: Jasso, G.; et al. 1997. New Immigrant Survey Pilot Study.

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Diversity immigrants are required to have a high school education or two years of skilled work experience. The NIS data show that diversity immigrants tend to be better educated than family-based, but not as well educated as employment-based immigrants. About

14 percent have not completed high school. They may be either principals who meet the work but not the education requirement or the spouses of the principals. Twenty-two percent of diversity immigrants have completed college or done graduate-level education, about the same proportion as among U.S. natives.²

The humanitarian classes of admission are less well educated than the employment-based, but are better educated than family admissions. The large number of relatively well-educated persons admitted as refugees from the Soviet Union may partly explain this

finding. About 21 percent have less than a high school education, while about 19 percent have college or higher degrees.

Occupation. Ultimately, the English and educational skills that

immigrants have are reflected in their occupations. The INS admissions data, which we use here, have only crude occupational classifications. It imperfectly captures the difference between immigrants who adjust into legal permanent resident [LPR] status after working in a U.S. job for several years and those who report an occupation upon admission that tells us more about what the immigrant did at home than what they will do here.

Sixty-five percent of all immigrants in FY 1996 reported no occupation or being a "homemaker," reflecting the fact that children,

² The U.S. Current Population Survey [CPS] permits us to compare directly to the native-born, but the foreign-born data do not distinguish by admission status. The CPS data also include illegal aliens who have extremely low levels of education in the foreign-born category. See: Fix, M.; Passel, J.S. 1994. Immigration and Immigrants: Setting the Record Straight. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute. These figures for the diversity class of admission correspond to data on education collected by the U.S. Department of State for diversity immigrants only.

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Major Occupational Category

by Admission Class: 1996

PERCENT

Source: INS Public Use Admissions Data.

parents, and spouses are a large share of all admissions and most do not work at the time of entry.

Nevertheless, occupational status faithfully reflects the legal requirements of the admission classthe proportion of all immigrants not reporting an occupation is greater among family and humanitarian admissions, about 70 percent of all immigrants in each category. By way of comparison, only about one-half of all employment and

diversity admissions have no reported occupation.³ The skills which immigrants bring to the United States are reflected in their type of occupations. Family and humanitarian immigrants are primarily blue-collar workers. In contrast, employment-based and permanent

diversity immigrants are predominantly white-collar workers. These broad differences between the major classes of admission have changed only slightly over the past three decades.

³ The initial results from the NIS pilot show that about 40 percent of adult nonexempt family immigrants are not employed. Alternatively, more than 95 percent of employment-based principals are employed. The INS admission figures for "no occupation" include children and persons who are unemployed, retired, or for whom no information is given.

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FY 1996 Regular Admissions by Occupation: Predicted and Actual

occupation PREDICTED ACTUAL excess Of

(without IMMACT) (with IMMACT) actual over

predicted

white-collar WORKERS

Professional, Technical, and Kindred

Health Professionals 10,244 18.986 85%

Other Professionals 9,231 19,477 111%

Technical & Specialty 22,115 33,117 50%

Executives 20,283 30,702 51%

Sales 12,943 13,002 0%

Administrative Support 19,437 19,807 2%

BLUE-COLLAR WORKERS

Precision Production 21,028 20,116 -4%

Operators, Fabricators, & Laborers 37,702 53,936 43%

Farming, Forestry, and Fishing 12,251 12,588 3%

Service 48,180 51,797 8%

Total with Occupation 165,234 221,731 34%

TOTAL WITHOUT OCCUPATION 261,694 498,583 91%

GRAND TOTAL 426,928 730,314 69%

Note: Predicted numbers in FY 1996 are based on linear projections (from the years between 1972 and 1991), and are kept within numerical limits on nonexempt categories. Humanitarian admissions are not included.

Source: Greenwood, M.; Ziel, F.A. 1997. The Impact of the Immigration Act of 1990 on U.S. Immigration. Washington, DC: U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.

IMMACT has had an effect on occupational distribution within these broad categories. To gauge its effects, a research paper prepared for the Commission calculated simple linear projections for all of the admission categories now subject to the worldwide ceiling on admissions. Data from FY 1972-1991 were analyzed and the trends identified, then projected forward to FY 1996. This analysis, therefore, paints a "what-if" picture of what today's immigration might have looked like if past trends had continued unaffected by IMMACT [see table above].

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The actual total number of admissions under the worldwide ceiling in FY 1996 was 720,314 whichcompared to the projected figure of 426,929was 69 percent greater than would have been expected without IMMACT. Admissions were greater than the projected figure because IMMACT increased numerically-limited family, employment, and diversity admissions. The numerically-exempt admissions for the immediate relatives of U.S. citizens would have grown

between 1992 and 1996 even without IMMACT. This analysis does not include humanitarian admissions.

Of immigrants who reported an occupation, the actual admissions in FY 1996 were 221,731 whichcompared to the projected figure of 165,234was 34 percent greater than would have been expected if IMMACT had not gone into effect. By contrast, nonworking immigrants experienced a 91 percent increase of actual over projected. This finding is not surprising as FY 1996 family admissions were significantly higher than would have been permissible under previous law. In part this was because IMMACT permitted unused FY 1995 employment-based numbers to be transferred to the FY 1996 family categories. In combination with a growth in immediate relatives (including those who would normally have been admitted in FY 1995 but were caught in processing delays), the additional visas meant more spouses and minor children entered. These immigrants are the least likely to be employed.

As might be anticipated, IMMACT's new emphasis on admitting highly-educated and skilled persons led to growth in professional occupations among those who reported an occupation. As stated above, there was an overall 34 percent increase in persons reporting an occupation. This increase was not evenly distributed, however. The number of health professionals, for example, was projected to be 10,244, but at 18,985 was 85 percent greater. The number of executives also shows a higher than expected increase. Interestingly, projections not shown here indicate that within the employment-based

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category, family members (beneficiaries) of the principals show the greatest growth in professional occupations. This suggests that when principals with more skills are admitted, they bring with them spouses who are, likewise, more skilled than in the past. Further, projections not shown here indicate that the skill requirement for permanent diversity immigrants makes for more highly-skilled admissions from eligible countries. In short, IMMACT increased both the

numbers of more skilled admissions and their share of immigrants admitted

Most nonprofessional white-collar and blue-collar occupations show very little or no growth over what might have occurred without IMMACT. The one notable exception is a greater-than-expected

increase in the number of "Operators, Fabricators, and Laborers." There were 53,936 admissions in these occupations compared to the 37,702 that were projected. As the employment-based access for persons with these occupations is highly limited, it appears that much of this increase is attributable to family-based admissions. It is

unclear from the data, however, why this pattern has emerged.

Earnings. According to the NIS survey, the median earnings of all male immigrants admitted in 1996 was $15,600 and for women was $11,960, lower than the median earnings for natives. Compared to the earnings in their last country of residence, male immigrants

experienced a 59 percent increase and women a 45 increase in earnings upon admission to the United States. Differences in earnings are, as should be expected, substantial by admission class. Many

employment-based immigrants earn a median income of $36,400 on the date of their admission to LPR status, while the sibling or spouse of an LPR earns $11,750 and the spouse of a citizen earns $18,200.

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Effects on the Economy

An independent evaluation of immigration by a panel of eminent social scientists at the National Research Council [NRC], sponsored by the Commission,⁴ found that immigration has a positive economic impact on the national level. However, the NRC panel's findings confirm the by now commonplace conclusion that there are tangible costs to certain sectors of the labor market and certain communities. This reinforces the Commission's conclusions on the need for a well-regulated system of immigrant admissions, as well as the need for attention to means of improving integration and reducing friction between newcomers and established residents.

The NRC panel estimates that immigrants may add $1-10 billion directly to the national economy each year, a small but positive amount in a $7.6 trillion economy. Many consumers, business owners, and investors benefit from the immigrant labor force. Recent newcomers may be willing to work for lower wages than other U.S. workers, although, with the exception of many immigrants with less than a high school education, most immigrants tend to earn as much as natives after a decade. Many others in the economy benefit, particularly those who do work that is complementary to that performed by immigrants. Immigrants provide the labor that has kept viable

entire segments of certain labor-intensive industries, such as garment and shoemaking. Many immigrant entrepreneurs expand trade with foreign countries from which they come, and the language and cultural expertise of many immigrant employees are valuable to U.S. companies doing business abroad.

Immigrants also contribute to the economic revitalization of the communities in which they live. As middle-class natives have left the

⁴ National Research Council. (Smith, J.P.; Edmonston, B. eds.). 1997. The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

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inner cities, immigrant newcomers have settled, established businesses, bought homes, and otherwise invested in these areas. Gateway cities, such as New York and Los Angeles, have benefitted

particularly from this urban renewal. At the same time, these cities face new challenges related to immigration. Growing immigrant communities require local school systems (some of which may have otherwise faced declining enrollments) to provide sufficient classroom space and teachers. They must also develop programs to teach children who are without English skills or prior education. Overcrowded housing, drug trafficking, gang violence, sweatshops, and public health problems also may be found in many of these inner-city communities.⁵

Immigration particularly affects certain U.S. workers. The NRC panel finds that workers with less than twelve years of education are the most adversely affected by low-skilled immigrant workers. Immigrants may have reduced substantially the wages of high school dropouts, who are about one-tenth of the workforce, by 5 percent nationwide. This is a sizable impact on a group that was already poorly paid before the loss in real earnings it experienced over the past two decades. Most often it is the foreign-born worker, particularly in labor markets with large numbers of immigrants who experience the greatest competition.⁶ While the education and skill level of most U.S. workers differs significantly from those of most immigrants (and therefore they are not competing for the same jobs), the

⁵ Muller, T. 1993. Immigrants and the American City. New York: New York University Press. Winnick, L. 1990. New People in Old Neighborhoods: The Role of New Immigrants in Rejuvenating New York's Communities. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

⁶ Greenwood, M.; Tienda, M. 1997. U.S. Impacts of Mexican Immigration. Team Report to Mexico/United States Binational Study on Migration. Greenwood, J.; Hunt, G.L. 1995. Economic Effects of Immigrants on Native and Foreign-Born Workers: Complementarity, Sustitutability, and Other Channels of Influence. Southern Economic Journal. 61:4 1096.

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new arrivals are often direct substitutes for immigrants who arrived a short time before them.⁷

The evidence on the impact of immigration on native-born minorities nationwide is less clear. The NRC concluded that in the aggregate, the economic opportunities of African Americans are not

reduced by immigration because African Americans and immigrants tend to be in different labor markets and reside in different cities. Other research finds small, adverse effects on African Americans.⁸ These effects are found most strongly when low-skilled minority workers compete with low-skilled immigrant workers in the same industries and the same geographic areas.

The fiscal effects of immigration also are complicated. Generally, the impacts on the federal government are favorable compared to those on state and local governments. Most studies show that at the federal level, the foreign-born pay more in taxes than they receive in services. When spread across all taxpayers, this characteristic represents a very small, but positive, benefit. At the local level, however, immigrants often represent a net fiscal cost, in some cases a substantial one. Research on the resident illegal alien population finds the clearest examples of fiscal costs to states and localities.⁹ In general, much of the negative effect is related to school costs that are considerable because of the larger size of many immigrant families.

⁷ Waldinger, R. 1996. Still the Promised City? African Americans and New Immigrants in Postindustrial New York. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Waldinger, R.; Bozorgmehr, M. 1996. Ethnic Los Angeles. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

⁸ Hamermesh, D.S.; Bean, F.D. (eds.) 1998 forthcoming. Help or Hinderance? Immigration and Its Economic Implications for African Americans. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

⁹ Taylor, E.; Martin, P.; Fix, M. 1997. Poverty Amidst Prosperity: Immigration and the Changing Face of Rural California. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press. U.S. General Accounting Office. 1995. Illegal Aliens: National Cost Estimates Vary Widely. Washington, DC. 6. Clark, R.; Passel, J.S.; Zimmermann, W.N.; Fix, M.E. 1994. Fiscal Impacts of Undocumented Aliens: Selected Estimates for Seven States. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.

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Although funds spent on education may be considered an investment, not just a fiscal burden, the payoff is not realized for many years.

Education affects fiscal impacts in a second way. Ultimately, the economic success and fiscal contributions of immigrants are determined by their educational level. The NRC panel found that immigrants who complete high school and beyond generally represent a more favorable balance of fiscal costs and contributions than do those with little or no education. Even over their lifetimes, immigrants without education are unlikely to contribute sufficient tax revenues to offset their use of services. Both groups of immigrants tend to use public services in a similar fashion, particularly as related to the schooling of their children, but the more educated immigrants tend to earn more and pay higher taxes.

Educational differences also explain why certain states and localities are more adversely affected by immigration than are others. California immigrants represent a sizeable tax burden (estimated at almost $1,200 per native-headed family per year) while New Jersey immigrants represent a more modest tax burden (estimated to be $232 per native-headed family per year). The difference can be explained largely by the differences in the average educational level of the immigrants residing in these states.¹⁰

English language ability also affects the economic success and fiscal impacts of immigrants. In the 1990 Census, 47 percent of the foreign-born more than 5 years of age reported not speaking English "very well." Individuals with poor English language skills tend to be confined to the lowest levels of the U.S. job market. By contrast, ability in spoken English markedly improves immigrants' earnings,

¹⁰ See: Espenshade, T. 1997. Keys to Successful Immigration: Implications of the New Jersey Experience. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.

¹¹ Chiswick, B.R. (ed.). 1992. Immigration, Language, and Ethnicity. Washington, DC: The AEI Press. 229-96.

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especially for Hispanic and Asian adult immigrants.¹¹ English

reading comprehension also has been found to improve the earnings of young immigrant adults.¹²

Population Growth

and Natural Resources

In recent years there have been about 800,000 legal admissions and an additional estimated 200,000 to 300,000 unauthorized entries, but the net annual increase of the foreign-born population is about 700,000 each year due to return migration and mortality.¹³ In 1996, the

foreign-born population was 24.6 million, 9.3 percent of the U.S.

population. Recent arrivals make up a large share of the resident foreign-born population; about 28 percent arrived after 1990, and an additional 35 percent during the 1980s.

It is estimated that international migration makes up somewhere between one-quarter and one-third of net annual population increase. Given current demographic trends and noting that much can happen to alter long-range forecasts, the U.S. Census Bureau projects the population to increase by 50 percent between 1995 and 2050. Immigration is likely to become a larger proportion of the net increase.¹⁴

The NRC report also presented estimates of population growth. It found that without immigration since 1950, the U.S. population would have been 14 percent smaller than its 1995 size of 263 million. The

¹² Rivera-Batiz, F.L. 1992. English Language Proficiency and the Earnings of Young Immigrants in the U.S. Labor Market. Policy Studies Review 11:165-75.

¹³ National Research Council. 1997. The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

¹⁴ U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1996. Current Population Reports. (Feb.). Edmonston, B.; Passel, J.S. (eds.). 1994. Immigration and Ethnicity: The Integration of American's Newest Arrivals. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.

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NRC projected the population to the year 2050 after making certain assumptions about mortality, fertility, and rates of group inter-

marriage. According to the projection based on these assumptions, the U.S. population would increase by 124 million persons to 387 million, with immigration responsible for two-thirds (82 million) of the increase. Of this 82 million, 45 million are immigrants and an additional 37 million increase is due to their higher assumed fertility.

Immigration affects the age structure as well as the overall population. The NRC panel projected that under current immigration policy, kindergarten through grade eight school enrollment in 2050 would be 17 percent higher than it was in 1995. High school enrollment would rise from 14.0 million in 1995 to 20.3 million in 2050. Immigration also has small effects on the proportion of the population that is elderly. No matter which immigration policies are adopted, according to the NRC, the number of persons aged 65 years and older will double between 1995 and 2050. However, the proportion of older people in the total population will be somewhat smaller with immigration.

The NRC panel's projection of the ethnic distribution of the U.S. population in 2050 shows the Hispanic population increasing from 10 to 25 percent and the Asian population from 3 to 8 percent of the population. These projections are dependent on today's rates of group intermarriage and how persons report their ethnicity. It may be that, like children of immigrants who arrived in the last century, descendents of today's immigrants will choose to report their ethnicity as being different from that of their parents, and that

today's ethnic categories will not accurately describe tomorrow's populations.

What broader implications do these growth figures have? Some analysts argue that high immigration levels mean an abundant supply of youthful workers who will be a substantial spur to the economy.

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From this perspective, population growth is an engine for technological progress and the means to solve environmental problems, effectively spawning change out of necessity. Proponents of this view argue that human resourcefulness has dealt with population growth in the past and the solutions often have left us better off. Adding more people may "cause us more problems, but at the same time there will be more people to solve these problems."¹⁵

Others are concerned about the negative consequences of population growth, particularly on the environment, infrastructure, and services.¹⁶ They see population growth as imposing pressures on our natural resources and quality of life, raising special concerns in the arid

regions of the southwest or sites of industries relocating to the south central states.¹⁷ Those concerned argue that our future well-being depends upon both conservation, and stabilizing population growth.¹⁸

This debate primarily concerns total U.S. population growth, which is strongly influenced by immigration. Still, there is little or no

information about whether immigrants have differential impacts

distinct from the population increase they produce on the U.S.

environment.¹⁹

The Commission did find that rapid inflows of immigrants can pose difficulties for those who must plan for community growth. Schools sometimes receive large numbers of new immigrant students that

¹⁵ Simon, J. 1994. More People, Greater Wealth, More Resources, Healthier Environment. Economic Affairs (April) 22-29.

¹⁶ Beck, R. 1994. Re-Charting America's Future: Responses to Arguments Against Stabilizing U.S. Population and Limiting Immigration. Petoskey, MI: The Social Contract Press.

¹⁷ U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform. 1995. Mesa, Arizona U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform roundtable. U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform 1997. Site visit to Garden City, Kansas.

¹⁸ Abernethy, V. 1994. Population Politics. New York: Insight Press.

¹⁹ Kraly, E.P. 1995. U.S. Immigration and the Environment: Scientific Research and Analytic Issues. Washington, DC: U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.

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had not been planned for. Housing and infrastructure development may not be adequate in affected urban and rural communities.²⁰ New immigrant destinations, sometimes to areas that have not had new immigrants for a century or more, can put particular stress on communities that have experienced rapid growth in the past decade.

Foreign Policy and

National Security Interests

Immigration matters frequently are intertwined with foreign policy and national security. Today, migration and refugee issues are matters of high international politics engaging the heads of state

involved in defense, internal security, and external relations.²¹ International migration intersects with foreign policy in two principal ways. The U.N. Security Council has acknowledged that migration can pose threats to international peace and security through economic or social instability or humanitarian disasters. Migration can also build positive relations with other countries and thereby promote national security. As a consequence, migration itself requires bilateral and international attention to help address the causes and consequences of movements of people.

During the Cold War, a foreign policy priority was the destabilizing of Communist regimes. Refugee policy was often a tool to achieve that strategic goal, for instance, by encouraging the flow of migrants from Eastern Europe or Cuba. Elsewhere, political, economic, and military involvement in Southeast Asia and the Dominican Republic had significant migration consequences, as large numbers of Southeast Asians and Dominicans ended up as refugees and immigrants to

²⁰ Taylor, E.; Martin, P.; Fix, M. 1997. Poverty Amidst Prosperity: Immigration and the Changing Face of Rural California. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.

²¹ Weiner, M. 1992. Security, Stability, and International Migration. International Security 17:3 (Winter) 91-126.

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the U.S. These foreign policy priorities generally have had significant immigration consequences years later.

Alternatively, immigration concerns sometimes have played a significant role in U.S. foreign policy, especially when mass movements to the U.S. are feared. A stated rationale for U.S. Central-American policy in the 1980s was to prevent a mass movement that would occur if anti-American Marxist dictatorships were established in Central America. One of the explicit reasons for the military intervention in Haiti in 1994 was to restrain the flow of migrants onto U.S. shores. And, although the U.S. does not officially maintain

relations with Cuba, migration concerns gained priority over diplomatic ones leading to negotiations on the Cuban Migration Agreement and to a reversal of policy regarding the interdiction of Cuban migrants.

Some observers believe that environmental causes now rival economic and political instability as a major source of forced migration throughout the world. There are estimates that as many as one- hundred million people may be displaced, in part, because of

degradation of land and natural resources. "That will increase the pressure to migrate to places like the United States."²² The pervasive deterioration of Mexico's rural drylands may contribute to between 700,000 and 900,000 people a year leaving rural areas.²³ Environmental degradation in Mexico, Haiti, and Central America also are believed to have migration consequences for the U.S. Often environmental problems intersect with other causes. One researcher argues that migrants from Haiti may be considered "environmental

refugees" because the root causes of their migrations are land

²² Schwartz, M.L.; Notini, J. 1994. Desertification and Migration: Mexico and the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.

²³ National Heritage Institute. 1997. Environmental Degradation and Migration: The U.S./Mexico Case Study. Report prepared for the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.

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degradation and the Haitian government's unwillingness to act in the interest of the general population."²⁴

Stabilizing economic growth and democracy may be an effective means of reducing migration pressures. The Commission for the Study of International Migration and Cooperative Economic Development²⁵ concluded that, over the long run of a generation or more, trade and investment are likely to reduce migration pressures. Supporters of the North American Free Trade Agreement [NAFTA]

argued that NAFTA-related development eventually will reduce

unauthorized Mexican migration. The U.S. has provided the reinstalled democratically-elected government of Haiti with a great deal of rehabilitation assistance that should aid the stability of that

country.

Conclusion

Properly-regulated immigration and immigrant policy serves the national interest by ensuring the entry of those who will contribute most to our society and helping lawful newcomers adjust to life in the United States. It must give due consideration to shifting economic realities. A well-regulated system sets priorities for admission; facilitates nuclear family reunification; gives employers access to a global labor market while protecting U.S. workers; helps to generate jobs and economic growth; and fulfills our commitment to resettle refugees as one of several elements of humanitarian protection of the persecuted.

²⁴ Catanese, A. 1990/91. Haiti's Refugees: Political, Economic, Environmental. (Paper 17). San Francisco: Natural Heritage Institute; Indianapolis: Universities Field Staff International.

²⁵ The Commission for the Study of International Migration and Cooperative Economic Development. 1990. Unauthorized Migration: An Economic Development Response. Washington, DC.

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