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October 2009 Volume 15 Number 4UN Migration, WB Remittances
UN Migration. The UN released migration stock estimates for 2010, projecting that the number of migrants will rise from 195 million in 2005 to 214 million in 2010, or about three million a year (www.unmigration.org). The share of the world's population defined as migrants, persons born outside the country in which they are living (foreign-born residents enumerated in censuses and population registers), is projected to rise slightly to 3.1 percent in 2010. << back Almost 60 percent of the world's migrants are in the high-income or industrial countries that have about 15 percent of the world's population. The stock of migrants in high-income countries is projected to rise from 123 million in 2005 to 133 million in 2010, while the stock in developing countries is projected to increase from 72 million to 81 million. High-income countries are sub-divided into most industrial countries (OECD members plus ex-USSR), which are projected to have 104 million migrants in 2010, and high-income Gulf oil exporters, projected to have 17 million migrants. In 2010, the US is projected to have 43 million migrants; Russia, 12 million; Germany, 11 million; and Canada, France, and Saudi Arabia about seven million each. The US has 20 percent of the world's migrants and a third of the migrants in high-income countries. Women are half of all migrants, but their share fell slightly between 2000 and 2010, largely as a result of fewer Latin American women moving to the US. A third of the world's migrants move from developing to industrial countries, as from Mexico to the US, almost a third move from one developing country to another, as from Indonesia to Malaysia, and almost 30 percent move from one industrial country to another, as from Canada to the US. About seven percent move from an industrial country to a developing country, as with Japanese expatriates in Thailand. Remittances. Remittances to developing countries quadrupled from less than $60 billion in 1990 to $285 billion in 2007 and $328 billion in 2008, almost triple ODA of $119 billion and over half of foreign direct investment in developing countries of $490 billion. However, remittances are poised to fall up to 10 percent in 2009 because of the global recession. In 2008, remittances to developing countries were 2.5 percent of their $13 trillion GDP. India reported $52 billion in remittances in 2008, up from $24 billion in 2005 and a sixth of global remittances to developing countries; followed by China $41 billion, up from $22 billion; and Mexico, $26 billion, up from $22 billion. Other remittance totals for 2008 include the Philippines, $19 billion; Poland, $11 billion; Nigeria and Egypt, $10 billion each; Romania and Bangladesh, $9 billion each; and Vietnam, $7 billion. Remittances were 46 percent of GDP in Tajikistan, 34 percent in Moldova, and 28 percent in Lesotho Research suggests that families receiving remittances are better off, with more disposable income than other families. Remittances are often used to keep children in school and to cover the cost of health care; their spending can generate economic multipliers that benefit non-migrants and local economies. However, there is not yet clear evidence that remittances flowing into a village or region promotes stay-at-home economic development, suggesting that poverty reduction does not necessarily equal economic growth. The high cost of sending small sums over national borders came into focus after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. In an effort to reduce informal financial transfer channels that could be used by terrorists, international development agencies and national governments in cooperation with banks and NGOs educated migrants about the cost of remitting money over national borders and implemented policies that lowered remittance costs, such as allowing migrants to open bank accounts. However, there has not been a similar effort to reduce recruitment costs. A typical South Asian migrant pays at least $2,000 for a three-year contract that, at $200 a month, will generate $7,500 in earnings. If remittances are $5,000, then reducing remittance costs from 10 percent to five percent saves the migrant $250. However, reducing recruitment costs could save migrants much more. |