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October 2006 Volume 12 Number 4

Congress: Senate, House, CBO


There were many House and a few Senate hearings on immigration reform in summer 2006, with most of the witnesses endorsing the House (HR 4437) over the Senate (S2611) passed bill. No meeting between the two chambers was held on the widely diverging bills. In September 2006, House leaders enacted a "border security package" before adjourning in a bid to bolster Republicans in November 2006 elections.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration cited declining apprehensions as a sign that its strategy of sending National Guard troops to the border in summer 2006 to bolster the Border Patrol was slowing illegal entries. The House and Senate nonetheless approved the $1.2 billion Secure Fence Act in September 2006, which calls for 700 more miles of 15-foot high double-layered fencing along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Supporters of the fence say it illustrates Congressional resolve to slow illegal migration; opponents likened it to the Berlin wall and said illegal migrants would use more dangerous routes to enter the US. Mexico formally asked President Bush to veto the fence bill, but he signed it into law.

There are now about 100 miles of fencing on the Mexico-US border. If the additional 700 miles are completed, a third of the entire border and most of the Arizona-Mexico border will have a double-layered fence topped with lights and cameras. The bill also requires DHS to achieve "operational control" of the US border within 18 months using technology and additional agents to "prevent all illegal entries."

The House in September 2006 approved several other parts of its enforcement-only omnibus bill as stand-alone measures, including bills that would allow the indefinite detention of some illegal migrants, speed the ability of immigration officers to deport people and limit their access to appeal, and impose up to a 20-year prison sentence on anyone who digs of finances a tunnel under the U.S. border.

Senate. The Senate's Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, in a drafting error, would expand the Davis Bacon Act of 1931, which requires that a local prevailing wage be paid to all workers employed in federally contracted construction projects, to cover all H-2C guest workers, even if the construction project on which the H-2Cs are working is not federally funded [H-2C visas would be given to a new group of guest workers who could eventually become immigrants]. CIRA's supporters said the error would be corrected if CIRA is enacted; the House hearings highlighted the error as an example of problems with the Senate bill.

The Senate CIRA would increase the cap on the number of employment-based immigration visas from the current 140,000 (workers and their families) to 450,000 (workers only) for 10 years. Some spouses and children now included under the cap would be exempt from the quota, but the total number of employment-based principals and family members would be limited to 650,000 a year. CIRA would reserve at least 200,000 employment-based immigrant visas a year for unskilled or "essential workers" and their families.

President Bush favors the Senate bill. Speaking in Miami on July 31, 2006, he said: "We need a guest worker program as part of a comprehensive reform... the best way to enforce the border is to have a rational way for people who are doing jobs Americans aren't doing to come to this country on a temporary basis so they can realize their dreams."

Paul Cullinan of the Congressional Budget Office http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/immigration.cfm) testified on August 30, 2006 that federal spending could rise by $48 billion over the next decade if the Senate bill (S2611) was enacted, and federal revenues could rise by $44 billion. Half of the additional cost would be for refundable tax credits such as the Earned Income Tax Credit, and most of the additional revenue would be additional payroll taxes (most of the newly legalized would be barred from most federal means-tested benefits for at least five years). There would also be an additional $81 billion spent over the next decade on enforcement.

The CBO projected that 16 million foreigners could become immigrants under the Senate bill over the next decade, including 4.4 million legalized workers, 2.6 million family members and 3.3 million new H-2C guest workers.

Pence-Hutchison. Representative Mike Pence (R-IN) and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) introduced a bill in July 2006 aimed at seeking a middle ground between the House and Senate bills. Pence-Hutchison would allow unauthorized foreigners in the US to leave and return as guest workers after the President certifies that US borders are secure, a process expected to take two years [It is not clear what would happen to currently unauthorized foreigners during this two-year inter-regnum].

After the border is declared secure, US employers could open private "Ellis Island" centers in the eight NAFTA and CAFTA countries to recruit guest workers, who would receive secure work visas valid for two years. These visas would be renewable five times, for a total of 12 years, after which foreign workers could apply for five-year X-Change immigrant visas. At the end of 17 years, foreigners could apply for US citizenship.

The Pence-Hutchison plan was discussed as a middle-road option between the House and Senate bills, since it puts enforcement first but offers a path to legal residence and US citizenship. However, many of Pence's House colleagues denounced the Pence-Hutchison plan as "amnesty."

There was a demonstration in Washington DC on September 7, 2006 in favor of legalization, but far fewer people turned out than in Spring 2006; some said that lowered expectations of a major immigration reform bill reduced the number of participants. With many Republicans linking stepped up enforcement to national security, most observers say that an enforcement-only rather than an enforcement-and-legalization bill may be approved in a lame-duck session.

Milton Friedman, in a July 22, 2006 interview with the Wall Street Journal, said that "If there were no welfare state, you could have open immigration, because everybody would be responsible for himself... but you can't have open immigration without largely the elimination of welfare."

GAO. The General Accounting Office in September 2006 issued a report on foreign worker programs in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, reporting that "it is difficult to implement a system that responds to changing labor market needs and does not create incentives for employers to hire unauthorized foreign workers." However, "conducting frequent employer investigations and publicizing those investigations helps deter employers' hiring of unauthorized foreign workers."

The American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators in September 2006 released a report that estimated the cost of re-certifying the holders of 246 million US driver's licenses at $11 billion over five years. The Real ID Act requires those boarding airplanes and entering federal buildings to have "Real IDs," or IDs issued by the federal or state governments under the Real ID Act, beginning in May 2008. The new "smart" driver's licenses required by the Real ID act are expected to cost at least $140 each.

S. Mitra Kalita and Spencer S. Hsu, "Huge Backlogs, Delays Feared Under Senate Immigration Plan," Washington Post, July 24, 2006. GAO. 2006. Foreign Workers: Information on Selected Countries' Experiences. GAO-06-1055 September 8.
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