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October 2009 Volume 15 Number 4Climate Change and Migration
The UN's high-level summit on climate change brought 100 world leaders to New York in September 2009. The major issue was whether China and the US, which each account for about 20 percent of global emissions of greenhouse gases, would agree to tough and binding targets to reduce emissions, and whether industrial countries would provide aid to developing nations to help them reduce emissions. << back Many large developing countries as well as the US fear that agreeing to tough emission-reduction targets will reduce economic and job growth. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change urged a reduction of 20 to 40 percent in emissions from 1990 levels by 2020; a 20 percent reduction in global emissions would limit the rise in temperatures to two degrees Fahrenheit above current temperatures. The EU has agreed to the 20 percent reduction in emissions by 2020, but the US has not. The World Bank's World Development Report 2010 urges industrial countries to support Climate Investment Funds that would help developing countries to implement low-carbon technologies with the help of the world and regional development banks. US war games and intelligence studies conclude that over the next several decades, vulnerable regions in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia are likely to face food shortages, water crises, and flooding as a result of climate change. Under such scenarios, rising temperatures, surging seas and melting glaciers abroad could threaten US national interests. Some say that the conflict in southern Sudan is the result of climate change?drought and expansion of deserts in the north brought Arab nomads into conflict with Christian farmers. The National Intelligence Council produced the first assessment of the national security implications of global climate change in 2008, concluding that climate change would contribute to a host of problems, including poverty, environmental degradation and the weakening of national governments unable to cope with emergencies. The NIC is preparing reports on the impacts of climate change on individual countries likely to be adversely affected by climate change. The 38 National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs) prepared as of late 2008 aim to help least-developed countries to anticipate priority activities to deal with climate change. Two major types of activities are laid out in the NAPAs. First are adaptation strategies, such as planting salt-tolerant crops in areas suffering salt-water intrusion. Second is out-migration from threatened areas because they can no longer support the population, as when drought limits the availability of water, or resettling people threatened by floods or other natural disasters. There are three major responses to climate change: protection, adaptation and resettlement. First, cities threatened by climate change are most likely to take steps to prevent damage, as when coastal cities build sea walls or take steps to protect residents. Second are adaptation strategies, such as helping farmers to change crops to accommodate climate change. Third are resettlement options, such as moving people away from climate-change threats. John M. Broder, "Climate Change Seen as Threat to U.S. Security," New York Times, August 9, 2009. World Bank. 2009. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Washington DC. |