Print-Friendly Version    

The US Census Bureau released new projections that foresee the number of US residents rising from 282 million in 2000 to 420 million in 2050. In 2000, the racial/ethnic makeup of residents was: White, 69 percent; Hispanic and Black, 13 percent each; and Asian and other, six percent. By 2050, these percentages are projected to be: 50, 24, 15, and 13, meaning that the share of Hispanics among US residents almost doubles and the share of Asians almost triples. It is possible that, by 2050, today's racial and ethnic categories will no longer be in use.

There are an estimated 10 million unauthorized foreigners in the US, and three million US citizen children with at least one unauthorized parent. According to US Center for Immigration Studies (USCIS), there were seven million unauthorized foreigners in the US in 2000, including 4.8 million or 69 percent from Mexico, 200,000 from El Salvador, and almost 150,000 each from Guatemala, Colombia and Honduras.

Nonmetro. The 2000 Census found 49 million nonmetro residents in 2,052 counties and 233 million metro residents in 1,089 counties. Earnings and incomes are lower in nonmetro counties: average weekly earnings in 2002 were $543 in nonmetro counties and $685 in metro counties. Median household income in 2001 was $33,600 in nonmetro counties and $45,200 in metro counties.

The US's 362 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) have at least one urbanized area and 50,000 or more residents. Eighty-three percent of US residents were in MSAs in the 2000 Census. Metropolitan Divisions (MDs) within MSAs are sub-areas in which most employed workers remain in the area; the degree of commuting determines the boundaries of MDs. In 2000, 11 of the 15 largest MSAs contained MDs. http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/bulletins/fy04/b04-03.html)

The 560 Micropolitan Statistical Areas have 10,000 to 50,000 residents in urban clusters, and 10 percent of US residents were in such areas in 2000.

The states with the highest percentage of adults who have at least a high school diploma are in the Midwest and mountain areas. In Wyoming and Utah, 90 percent of adults 25 and older had at least a high school diploma, higher than the US average of 83 percent; Mississippi had the lowest high school graduation rate, 75 percent.

However, many of these states are losing residents, especially from rural areas, as young farm residents leave for college and do not return. Superior, Nebraska, "an oasis of the Great Plains, in the middle of everywhere," tried to reverse the exodus of young people when it dwindled to 2,000 residents, which population experts consider as the minimum to provide amenities such as schools. Residents taxed themselves to create an economic development fund, and they advertised the availability of three-bedroom, two-bath homes for less than $50,000, but migrants did not come. In nearly 70 percent of the counties on the plains, there are fewer people now than there were in 1950.

In 1972, when the Rural Development Act (PL 92-419) was enacted, agriculture was the leading source of income in 25 percent of rural counties; today, agriculture is the leading source of income in 10 percent of rural counties. Today, only six percent of rural residents live on farms, most farm families get most of their income off the farm, and less than two percent of rural residents report that farming is their primary occupation.

The major rural development strategy of the past 50 years has been to attract factories to low-cost land and labor, often with tax breaks and subsidies. Now many of these rural factories are closing, moving production overseas, but there is not a new rural development strategy to attract or retain jobs. Services, with 27 percent of employment in rural counties, have replaced manufacturing, with 17 percent, as the number one source of jobs in rural areas, but many service jobs offer low wages, so that even a shrunken manufacturing sector in 2000 provided more earnings than services, about 22 compared to 21 percent.

Some analysts urge rural areas to embrace product agriculture, such as pharmaceutical crops, nature tourism and advanced manufacturing based around local universities. Fostering local entrepreneurs, it is widely agreed, will require universal and cheap broadband technologies, but there are very uncertain prospects for this so-called grow-your-own rather than buy-free-agents strategy.

During the 20th century, agricultural policy was the major rural development policy, but even large payments to commodity producers have not prevented population declines in rural areas. Similarly, the lure of cheap land and labor is no longer enough to attract and retain factories. Thus, rural development experts call for multi-county regional policies that aim to support entrepreneurs, and acknowledge that it is often hard to obtain the necessary regional cooperation. However, except for areas with scenic amenities and those benefiting from metro spillovers, such regional cooperation will be necessary for 21st century economic development.

Welfare. The US revised federal welfare policies in August 1996, and the number of families receiving cash assistance has fallen from four million to two million. The reasons why Temporary Assistance for Needy Families rolls continued to fall as unemployment rose after 2001 include the fact that some adults reached their lifetime limit of five years of cash assistance, some were dropped for failure to work as required (at least 30 hours a week), and some did not apply because of complex applications. TANF has been extended on a year-by-year basis since 2001.

Democrats want to use the 2004 reauthorization of TANF to increase the federal minimum wage from $5.15 to $7 an hour.

All residents with US income must file tax returns by April 15, regardless of legal status. Legal residents with earnings and incomes of less than twice the poverty level and at least one child living at home are eligible for refunds of the taxes they paid and additional payments of up to $4,000 via the Earned Income Tax Credit program. The Rural Families Speak Project in a San Joaquin Valley survey found that most families had incomes below $19,920 a year, the poverty line for a family of five, but only a third applied for the EITC. The EITC is the largest federal anti-poverty program. Some 21 million US families received EITC refunds and payments totaling $37 billion in 2003.

Timothy Egan, "Amid Dying Towns of Rural Plains, One Makes a Stand," New York Times, December 1, 2003.