OECD: migration down 50% in 2020

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November 20, 2020

The OECD’s annual migration report emphasized that immigration and temporary migration fell sharply in 2020. Both immigration and temporary labor flows are expected to fall by half in 2020 for two reasons. First, the economic recession means that employers are sponsoring fewer foreign workers for immigrant and temporary work visas. Second, governments closed visa-processing facilities and borders to prevent the spread of covid, making it hard to complete the paperwork required for immigration and temporary work abroad.

Governments opened otherwise closed borders for some migrant workers, especially health care and farm workers. The demand for migrant health care workers is rising due to population aging and wages that are sometimes held down in order to avoid raising the taxes that pay the wages of caregivers for children and the elderly. Specialized farms that produce labor-intensive commodities prefer just-in-time guest workers to just-in-case local workers, who may not show up as promised or perform farm work only until they find better nonfarm jobs.

There were 5.3 million immigrants admitted to the OECD countries in 2019, including a quarter to the US. The OECD countries had over 135 million foreign-born residents in 2019, making international migrants over 10 percent of OECD residents.

Immigration to OECD countries rose from 4 million in 2009 to over 5 million in 2019

OECD countries admitted over five million temporary foreign workers in 2018, including 1.1 million in Poland, which sends seasonal workers to Western European countries and admits Ukrainians and citizens of other ex-USSR countries to fill seasonal jobs in Poland.

Ukrainian apple pickers in Poland; Polish asparagus sorters in Germany

Ukrainian apple pickers in Poland
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/aeda9ebe-3afa-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

Polish asparagus sorters in Germany
Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8473074.stm

Poland, the US, and Germany accounted for half of the temporary foreign workers in 2018

Most migrant workers are low skilled. The greatest gap between the share of migrant- and native-workers in particular occupations is in domestic work (activities of households as employers). Hospitality (accommodation and food services), support services to business such as janitors, and construction also have higher shares of migrant- than native-workers. The migrant share of farm workers is higher the US but not in Europe, which has more small family farms.

Migrants are underrepresented in European agriculture compared to native workers, and overrepresented in US agriculture

The covid pandemic demonstrates that governments can close borders, make exceptions to admit migrant workers, and support migrant workers and families adversely affected by lockdowns. Employers who might have persuaded governments to admit more high-skilled IT or tourism sector guest workers in normal years could not in 2020.

Integration. Many foreign-born workers in industrial countries lost their jobs during pandemic lockdowns, pushing unemployment rates for foreign-born workers higher than unemployment rates for native-born workers. Migrants are more likely to hold essential jobs that require personal interactions, making it harder for them to avoid contact with people who may have and transmit covid. Once infected, migrants can spread covid to family members in often crowded housing.

Especially in southern Europe, relatively few migrants can work from home

Before the pandemic, employment rates for foreign-born workers were often higher than for native workers because of the migrants’ youthful age structure and their desire for higher wages abroad. Employment fell for foreign- and native-born workers in most OECD countries between the second quarter of 2019 and 2020, but fell more for foreign-born workers. There were especially large foreign-native gaps in the employment decreases experienced in Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Austria, and Italy.

Employment rates for migrants fell more than for native-born workers in southern Europe

After Covid

Covid may mark a change in the trajectory of ever more labor mobility. As governments and firms reorient their supply chains from just in time to just in case, investors may become more cautious about making investments that assume just-in-time guest workers will be available, as with apple orchards that are planted in remote areas and become unprofitable if labor costs rise. Remote working arrangements may mark a new era of more trade in medical and other services via the internet rather than labor mobility to provide services in-person.

Before covid, migrants were overrepresented in some of the sectors where employment is growing and labor productivity is low, such as hospitality. One perennial migration question is the proper role of industrial policy or employer voices in migration policy decisions. If employers in a particular sector have labor shortages, should governments respond by admitting migrants to fill particular jobs, or is it better to admit migrants based on their human capital, such as youth, education, and language ability, and allow them to find jobs anywhere?

The US follows an employer-led or demand approach, with employers sponsoring named foreigners to fill particular jobs. Australia and Canada follow a human-capital or supply approach, giving priority to foreigners with more education and other traits that promise successful integration. Demand and supply approaches converge if policy makes it easiest for employers to sponsor college-educated migrants or if foreigners receive extra points for having a job offer.

Most OECD countries have sector-specific policies to manage their agricultural and health care systems, but not always sector-specific migration policies. Agriculture is an exception, since at least 15 OECD countries have programs to admit seasonal foreign farm workers. The usual procedure requires employers to try and fail to recruit local workers before being certified to hire migrants.

Procedures to recruit migrant workers vary. Employers make the decision on whom to hire, but some migrant-sending governments maintain work-ready pools to expedite employer recruitment. Migrants usually have contracts that tie them to one employer while abroad, and farm workers must usually depart after up to 10 months abroad, although Israel and Japan allow migrant farm workers to remain three to five years.

Agriculture, covered on pp144-48 in the OECD migration report, provides examples of how governments make four key labor migration policy decisions: labor market tests, recruitment, employment, and dependence.

First, what must employers do to be certified to recruit migrant workers, that is, what labor-market testing is required to ensure that local workers are not available? Second, how do employers recruit migrants abroad, and what laws apply, that is, may employers recruit only men? Who pays recruitment costs?

Third, who enforces the contracts that tie migrants to employers, and what happens to migrants who complain about their employer and are fired? Are dis-satisfied or fired migrants allowed to change employers, or must they leave the country? Fourth, should governments worry if dependence on migrants increases over time? If yes, what is the optimal strategy to reduce dependence, quotas, levies or some combination? Finally, do the remittances and returns from seasonal migration speed development in migrant areas of origin?

These certification, recruitment, enforcement, and dependence questions are contentious, especially because seasonal farm worker programs often have unanticipated effects. The 1942-64 US Bracero programs admitted over five million Mexican farm workers (some returned year after year; perhaps 1.5 million Mexicans participated) and set the stage for the movement of 10 percent of people born in Mexico to the US between the 1980s and 2010. The current H-2A agricultural guest worker program admits 200,000 Mexicans a year, and certification, recruitment, and enforcement decisions are litigated routinely.

When countries tailor migration policies to specific sectors, should they require employers who hire migrant workers to also develop plans to reduce dependence on migrants over time? A US policy that gave inner-city hospitals easy access to foreign nurses around 2000 required the hospitals to develop plans to reduce their dependence on foreign nurses over time, but was soon ended when it became clear that nursing-autarky plans were developed by consultants and not implemented by hospitals. New Zealand is launching a similar program in 2021 that allows industries seeking foreign workers to negotiate agreements with the government that expedites migrant admissions in exchange for plans to employ more native workers over time.

Inertia is a powerful force. A quick return to normal with a vaccine may also return labor mobility patterns to their pre-covid trajectories. However, a slow return to pre-covid economic conditions may break some migration patterns and the networks that link employers in one country to workers in another. Future migration reports may emphasize the 2020 covid breakpoint in a manner similar to the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall or the September 11 terrorist attacks that mark before and after points in foreign or security policy.

OECD. International Migration Outlook 2020.

Rural Migration News. 2020. Mexican Braceros and US Farm Workers.

The OECD report includes a complex appendix table that reports the share of foreign-born workers in various sectors. The number 1 indicates a sector with a high share of migrants and 39 a sector with a low share of migrants. In most OECD countries, domestic work has the highest share of migrant workers, half or more, followed by food and beverage services, accommodation, and services to buildings (security and janitors). The lowest shares of migrants are in education, public administration, and other sectors where citizenship is sometimes required. Agriculture’s share of migrants is very uneven across OECD countries.

Domestic work is the sector with the highest share of migrant workers, 2016-18

Ranking of sectors by share of migrants, OECD countries, 2016-18
Share among the total population in employment
	AUT	BEL	CAN	CHE	CZE	DEU	ESP	EST	FIN	FRA	GBR	GRC	HUN	ISL	ISR	ITA	JPN	LTU	LUX	LVA	NLD	NOR	POL	SVN	SWE	EU-28 ranking	USA ranking	EU-28 %	USA %
Act. of HH as employers, undif. G&S-producing activities of HH for own use	4	2	1	4	31	2	1	ns	10	1	1	1	ns	ns	1	1	na	ns	1	ns	2	ns	ns	ns	ns	1	1	52.5	45.5
Food and Beverage Service Activities	2	4	13	3	9	1	2	28	1	4	4	5	10	6	33	3	6	22	4	24	7	3	2	5	1	2	12	25.6	22.5
Accommodation	3	1	7	1	3	4	3	24	2	3	5	6	8	2	6	2	9	5	12	ns	8	2	ns	4	4	3	3	23.7	32.1
Security, services to buildings and other business support activities	1	3	15	5	8	3	7	7	3	2	9	3	27	10	12	8	26	11	3	16	1	4	18	1	2	4	5	21.4	30.2
Warehousing and support activities for transportation	15	13	11	11	4	5	13	5	13	18	3	13	16	20	17	7	22	14	26	7	6	11	ns	3	14	5	11	18.6	23.5
Other administrative and support service activities	21	10	8	6	1	20	5	ns	9	14	19	9	ns	8	15	11	11	13	9	ns	11	6	ns	18	8	6	15	16.0	19.0
Other service activities	14	15	17	20	12	11	9	23	4	9	22	14	22	ns	10	4	25	8	16	14	17	9	ns	17	3	7	9	15.7	26.4
IT and other information services	28	21	4	14	2	27	24	14	7	6	6	28	11	14	18	33	12	16	2	9	20	12	4	24	19	8	6	14.7	28.6
Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products	6	14	6	13	21	8	10	25	8	34	2	8	12	5	16	9	3	29	8	10	9	7	14	8	9	9	7	14.6	27.0
Construction	10	7	31	12	10	15	6	19	11	5	28	2	25	18	31	5	24	26	5	23	36	15	21	2	31	10	8	14.3	26.5
Residential care and social work activities	17	12	20	24	32	23	17	17	19	13	17	23	24	12	14	13	33	30	33	21	28	13	ns	13	6	11	20	14.1	16.7
Scientific and technical activities	18	9	19	16	7	24	14	27	5	8	12	22	6	11	21	29	16	37	13	25	19	10	5	21	10	12	23	14.1	15.9
Other transport and storage	9	11	23	31	30	7	20	12	17	31	10	30	28	15	25	28	35	3	21	12	13	17	ns	27	13	13	24	13.4	15.5
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.	26	30	18	35	26	17	31	ns	24	38	23	ns	31	ns	9	21	10	ns	7	4	25	16	ns	16	22	14	30	12.4	13.6
Land transport and transport via pipelines	8	6	9	26	28	13	18	9	14	12	7	32	20	7	24	16	29	7	28	13	21	8	25	6	5	15	10	12.3	24.3
Manuf. of basic metals and fabricated metal products	31	23	26	21	24	10	30	4	22	27	37	11	23	24	7	10	5	28	17	11	16	35	ns	14	21	16	29	12.2	14.1
Manufacture of transport equipment	20	16	16	10	6	12	34	ns	15	25	29	ns	30	ns	5	15	2	ns	ns	2	3	14	16	7	12	17	27	12.1	14.6
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles	24	24	22	15	15	25	11	26	23	21	11	19	4	25	26	27	15	24	14	15	18	26	8	28	25	18	17	12.0	17.9
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products	11	28	3	7	18	19	29	1	6	32	16	ns	26	ns	11	32	8	1	6	ns	12	ns	ns	29	23	19	4	11.9	30.6
Arts, cultural activities, gambling and betting activities	7	17	33	30	17	14	21	ns	29	17	30	25	5	ns	28	25	18	17	23	32	24	18	ns	32	34	20	34	11.7	11.9
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles	22	18	28	27	5	22	12	20	21	19	21	18	13	19	19	19	27	27	20	27	35	19	17	23	24	21	25	11.7	15.4
Real estate activities	13	26	10	22	16	33	8	2	30	7	32	ns	ns	ns	20	26	23	9	19	5	38	20	ns	9	32	22	22	11.5	16.5
Activities of membership organizations	32	5	29	28	27	34	23	21	31	20	27	29	ns	26	27	18	20	21	32	ns	26	31	ns	20	29	23	35	11.4	10.8
Manufacture of rubber, plastics and other non-metallic mineral products	12	31	14	2	19	9	27	18	18	35	18	7	36	1	3	14	4	18	24	19	10	24	26	10	17	24	16	11.2	18.4
Publishing, audiovisual, broadcasting activities and telecommunications	25	25	24	33	13	29	19	34	32	22	20	24	2	34	34	37	28	15	27	30	23	29	ns	35	27	25	26	11.2	14.8
Human health activities	30	29	27	19	11	30	32	10	26	28	13	27	14	17	13	31	34	12	31	6	30	21	29	15	18	26	21	11.1	16.6
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities	19	20	na	23	38	28	15	22	27	11	38	21	ns	9	37	17	na	25	29	29	37	22	ns	26	33	27	na	10.9	na
Other manufacturing	27	27	25	18	33	21	26	11	35	33	25	12	29	21	4	20	14	19	18	17	15	30	23	25	26	28	14	10.0	19.0
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles	35	22	32	32	34	18	22	ns	20	30	33	16	35	35	38	30	31	36	25	34	31	28	ns	38	16	29	19	10.0	16.9
Manufacture of electrical equipment	16	34	5	8	23	16	35	13	12	29	26	10	21	ns	2	22	7	ns	ns	ns	14	ns	ns	12	20	30	18	10.0	17.1
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products	5	35	2	9	14	6	25	3	ns	10	8	4	7	ns	8	12	1	4	34	1	5	ns	ns	19	7	31	2	9.9	33.5
Legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering activities	34	33	21	25	29	35	33	30	28	23	15	35	32	28	23	36	30	20	10	31	27	23	7	30	28	32	31	9.8	12.7
Financial and insurance activities	36	32	12	29	22	38	38	29	33	26	14	37	33	33	29	39	32	ns	11	36	33	34	13	36	35	33	28	9.2	14.3
Education	33	37	30	34	25	32	36	15	25	24	31	36	15	22	35	35	13	10	35	20	32	27	20	31	11	34	33	9.0	12.3
Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation Activities	23	19	36	17	35	26	28	ns	ns	16	34	15	ns	ns	22	24	19	2	36	3	22	ns	ns	11	30	35	38	8.9	7.4
Mining and Quarrying	29	8	37	36	20	31	16	8	ns	ns	24	ns	ns	ns	36	23	17	ns	ns	ns	4	25	ns	ns	37	36	32	6.8	12.4
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing	39	39	38	39	36	36	4	36	37	39	35	17	17	23	30	6	21	35	38	37	39	38	34	37	39	37	13	6.5	22.5
Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply	37	38	34	37	39	37	37	6	ns	37	39	39	ns	ns	32	34	37	23	37	33	29	ns	39	22	38	38	37	5.4	8.8
Public administration and defence, compulsory social security	38	36	35	38	37	39	39	35	38	36	36	38	37	31	39	38	36	34	39	38	34	36	35	34	36	39	36	5.3	9.4

Another appendix table includes inflows of foreigners by country between 2008 and 2018. The OECD notes that the data are not necessarily comparable across countries. The inflow data for traditional immigration countries such as Australia, Canada, and the US include foreigners admitted as immigrants, meaning they have the right to work in any job that does not require citizenship and apply to naturalize after three to five years. The inflow data for many European countries include foreigners admitted for more than 90 days, including foreign students and guest workers who may not become immigrants.

Inflows of foreigners rose in many countries between 2008 and 2018, especially in Germany

Inflows of foreign population into selected OECD countries and Russia (Thousands)
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Australia	203.9	219.4	202.2	206.4	236	244.8	233.9	223.7	218.5	224.2	186.6
Austria	94.4	91.7	96.9	109.9	125.6	135.2	154.3	198.7	158.7	139.3	131.7
Belgium	106	102.7	113.6	117.9	128.9	117.6	106.3	128.8	103.2	109.5	116.8
Canada	247.2	252.2	280.7	248.7	257.8	259	260.3	271.8	296.4	286.5	321
Chile	43.6	35.9	41.4	50.7	65.2	84.4	83.5	101.9	135.5	207.2	339.4
Colombia	..	..	..	..	..	..	..	5.7	8.3	11.3	10.6
Czech Republic	76.2	38.2	28	20.7	28.6	27.8	38.5	31.6	34.8	43.5	55.9
Denmark	37	32	33.4	34.6	35.5	41.3	49	58.7	54.6	49	45.3
Estonia	1.9	2.2	1.2	1.7	1.1	1.6	1.3	7.4	7.7	9.1	9.7
Finland	19.9	18.1	18.2	20.4	23.3	23.9	23.6	21.4	27.3	23.7	23.1
France	147	149.6	145.8	142.1	151.6	251.3	251.8	242.7	245.7	245.9	248.9
Germany	573.8	606.3	683.5	841.7	965.9	1,108.1	1,342.5	2 016.2	1,719.1	1,384.0	1,383.6
Greece	41.5	35.8	35.4	33	32	31.3	29.5	34	86.1	80.5	87.3
Hungary	35.5	25.6	23.9	22.5	20.3	21.3	26	25.8	23.8	36.5	49.3
Iceland	7.5	3.4	3	2.8	2.8	3.9	4.3	5	7.9	11.8	11.5
Ireland	89.7	50.7	23.9	33.7	37.2	41	43.7	49.3	53.9	57.2	61.9
Israel	13.7	14.6	16.6	16.9	16.6	16.9	24.1	27.9	26	26.4	28.1
Italy	496.5	406.7	424.5	354.3	321.3	279	248.4	250.5	262.9	301.1	285.5
Japan	344.5	297.1	287.1	266.9	303.9	306.7	336.5	391.2	427.6	475	519.7
Korea	302.2	232.8	293.1	307.2	300.2	360.5	407.1	372.9	402.2	452.7	495.1
Latvia	3.5	2.7	2.8	2.9	3.7	3.5	4.5	4.5	3.4	5.1	6.6
Lithuania	3	1.7	1.1	1.7	2.5	3	4.8	3.7	6	10.2	12.3
Luxembourg	16.8	14.6	15.8	19.1	19.4	19.8	21	22.6	21.6	23.1	23.3
Mexico	15.9	23.9	26.2	22	18.2	63	43.5	34.4	35.9	32.8	38.7
Netherlands	103.4	104.4	110.2	118.5	115.7	122.3	139.3	159.5	182.2	183.9	191
New Zealand	90.1	75.7	69.7	71.4	71.6	77.2	91.7	102.9	105.6	105.3	111.8
Norway	58.8	56.7	65.1	70.8	70	66.9	61.4	59.1	58.5	49.8	44.4
Poland	41.8	41.3	41.1	41.3	47.1	46.6	32	86.1	107	128	137.6
Portugal	72.8	61.4	50.7	45.4	38.5	33.2	35.3	37.9	46.9	61.4	93.2
Russia	281.6	279.9	187.8	214.9	290.6	350.7	443.1	425	388.6	393.1	365
Slovak Republic	7.4	5.1	4.2	3.8	2.9	2.5	2.4	3.8	3.6	2.9	2.9
Slovenia	28	27.3	12.7	10.7	12.2	11.6	11.3	12.6	13.8	15.6	24.1
Spain	567.4	365.4	330.3	335.9	272.5	248.4	264.5	290	352.2	454.4	560
Sweden	83.3	83.8	79	75.9	82.6	95.4	106.1	113.9	143	125	114.4
Switzerland	157.3	132.4	134.2	142.5	143.8	155.4	152.1	150.4	143.1	137.8	140.1
Turkey	..	..	29.9	..	..	..	..	..	273.9	364.6	466.9
United Kingdom	456	430	459	453	383	406	504	481	455	520	486.5
United States	1,107.1	1,130.8	1,042.6	1,062.0	1,031.6	990.6	1,016.5	1,051.0	1,183.5	1,127.2	1,096.6

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